I'm always excited to take on new projects and collaborate with innovative minds.
Makongeni - Thika
Comprehensive mortality experience study with trend analysis and cohort effects for life insurance portfolio management and predictive mortality modeling.
Project Scope:
I conducted a 5-year mortality experience study for a life insurance company's individual life portfolio, analyzing over 100,000 policy-years of exposure to assess the appropriateness of mortality assumptions used in pricing and reserving.
Methodology:
• Collected and validated historical policy data including exposures, deaths, and policy characteristics
• Calculated actual-to-expected (A/E) mortality ratios by age, gender, policy duration, and product type
• Performed trend analysis to identify mortality improvement patterns
• Applied credibility theory to determine statistical significance
• Conducted cohort analysis to identify generation effects
Results:
The analysis revealed that actual mortality experience was 92% of the assumed rates, with significant variation by age band and product line. I identified emerging trends in mortality improvement rates that differed from the standard tables being used.
Impact:
My findings led to a revision of the company's mortality assumptions, resulting in more competitive product pricing while maintaining adequate reserves. The updated assumptions improved the accuracy of financial projections by 8% and contributed to enhanced profitability in target market segments.
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